Market Wrap: Cryptos Rise After Biden’s Executive Order; Sentiment Still Mixed

Bitcoin (BTC) traded higher on Wednesday after U.S. President Biden issued a long-awaited executive order on crypto, which did not impose new regulations on the industry.

Instead, the executive order directs federal agencies to better communicate about their work in the digital asset sector. It does not lay out specific positions the administration wants agencies to adopt, according to CoinDesk’s Nikhilesh De. Still, the order could lead to additional regulation in the future.

“The order seems relatively benign, hence giving the market some clarity,” Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at the U.K.-based digital asset broker GlobalBlock, wrote in an email to CoinDesk. “As many investors had prepared for the downside risks of this event by waiting on the sidelines, we are seeing many buy bitcoin back in what appears to be a spot-driven rally.”

“A year ago, bitcoin holders were afraid of regulation, and now the U.S. government sees the value and long-term prospects for innovation and opportunity,” Edward Moya, an analyst at Oanda, told CoinDesk. “Regulation is viewed as a positive for crypto. Large parts of the crypto industry need to get cleaned up and that should happen once crypto companies have regulatory clarity.”

Bitcoin rose as much as 10% following the release of the executive order, and traded above $40,000 over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, ether (ETH) rose about 5% over the past 24 hours. Equities were also higher on Wednesday, while traditional safe havens such as gold and the U.S. dollar declined.

●Bitcoin (BTC): $41,896, +8.60%

●Ether (ETH): $2,697, +5.39%

●S&P 500 daily close: $4,278, +2.57%

●Gold: $1,997 per troy ounce, −2.09%

●Ten-year Treasury yield daily close: 1.95%

Bitcoin, ether and gold prices are taken at approximately 4pm New York time. Bitcoin is the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX); Ether is the CoinDesk Ether Price Index (ETX); Gold is the COMEX spot price. Information about CoinDesk Indices can be found at coindesk.com/indices.

Implied volatility in the bitcoin options market is starting to rise from extreme lows over the past few days. That could point to greater price swings outside of the $30,000-$40,000 BTC price range, especially ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on March 15-16.

QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto trading firm, noticed increased activity in short-term BTC and ETH volatility markets, with significant demand during the Asia trading day. “We managed to take some profit on our March 18 long volatility position,” QCP wrote in a Telegram announcement. Long volatility is a trading strategy that usually involves buying options to profit from a greater than expected rise in realized volatility.

Sentiment has been less bearish among bitcoin option traders, evidenced by the decline in the put/call ratio over the past month. Still, there has been a slight uptick in the ratio in recent days, indicating some caution among traders.

Other indicators show immense bearish sentiment, which means traders are still skeptical despite recent price jumps. For example, “option buyers are willing to pay higher premiums to hedge their expected price decline risk,” Deribit, a crypto options and futures exchange, wrote in a blog post.

During times of market stress (such as a war), however, sentiment can fluctuate wildly.

“The impact of local wars and subsequent series of events on the market has shown significant “shortwave” characteristics: The volatility of options near the expiration date jumps up and down rapidly, while the volatility of options farther away from the expiration date remains relatively stable,” Deribit wrote.

Digital assets in the CoinDesk 20 ended the day higher.

There are no losers in CoinDesk 20 today.

Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk 20 is a ranking of the largest digital assets by volume on trusted exchanges.